September 10, 2004

So It Doesn't Get Lost In A Pile Of Memos

I wanted to point out the results of the ABC/Washington Post Poll, even though most of you know how suspicious I am of polls.
According to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, registered voters by a 27-point margin now say Bush has taken a clearer stand than Kerry on the issues, by 27 points call Bush the stronger leader and by 19 points say he would make the country safer. Bush also has a 22-point advantage in trust to handle terrorism, a 16-point lead on Iraq and perhaps a slight edge even on the lukewarm economy.

This doesn't bode well for Kerry, especially if you believe Dick Morris, who points out that a lot of the time, these polls are weighted according to expectations.

Some polling firms treat party affiliation as a demographic constant and, when they find that their sample has too many Republicans, they weight down each Republican interview and assign an extra weight to each Democratic response.

But other polling firms — and I — disagree. We feel that political party is not a demographic, like gender or race or age. If the survey finds more Republicans than usual, we think it's because the country has become more Republican, so we treat the result as a indicator of national mood, not of statistical error.

See...that's why I never trust these things.

1 comment:

  1. The only poll that really counts is the one conducted on Election Day.

    The other ones can't be trusted to tell you who's winning or losing, but if you string a bunch of them together and look at the hidden numbers (i.e., negatives and approvals in lieu of who's ahead), they can tell you what the trend is and, more importantly, what your candidate has to improve in order to win.